Calling all NFL GMs: Don’t leave the pick up to your stud QB or genius offensive playcaller. You make the call on draft night!
A quick look into recent draft mistakes by general managers influenced by outside pressures
I’ve got a theory about a recent trend in the NFL draft. Said theory goes as follows: there has been such a shift in power towards offense in the NFL that decision makers on that side of the ball have been allowed to influence springs for certain draft picks, with little negative recognition when the move doesn’t pan out. This jump for unproven offensive talent based on an opinion of a player or coach has proven unsuccessful in a couple of recent cases, most notably:
1. Patrick Mahomes requesting that the Chiefs draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Now, before I get started with my first example I would like to say that this article by no means is a knock on these players’ abilities. Edwards-Helaire is a very talented running back who had a phenomenal career at LSU, and who has had some bad injury luck in the pros (including gallbladder surgery last offseason that had Clyde down almost 50 pounds). Said bad luck has led the Chiefs to work more guys into their backfield rotation, which has left less playing time for CEH when he’s been healthy. However, the point of this article is to pull examples of bad draft picks, and so far, Clyde has been just that for the Chiefs. Taken 31st overall, he has played 27 games in his career (regular season and playoffs) and put up 1750 total yards—at a respectable 4.4 yards per carry—and 11 total touchdowns. Drafting a running back in the first round is becoming somewhat a thing of the past, but when a team decides to pull the trigger on a back this early, he’s gotta work out in a big way. CEH really hasn’t stood out thus far.
Some players taken later than Clyde that could’ve filled a bigger need for the Chiefs roster include WRs Tee Higgins (CIN) and Michael Pittman, Jr. (IND), two players who would’ve made the loss of Tyreek Hill to Miami this offseason a much easier pill to swallow. On the other side of the ball, stars of the secondary Antoine Winfield, Jr. (TB-safety), Jaylon Johnson (CHI-cornerback), and Trevon Diggs (DAL-cornerback) all went in the next 20 picks, and each would make life much easier on Pat Mahomes and the offense. And hell, if they wanted to draft a back, there was a guy named Jonathan Taylor who went 9 picks later. You know, the same Jonathan Taylor who was in the MVP conversation as a running back last season. Though Clyde has put up respectable stats in his career, it wouldn’t come as much of a shock if JT bested Edward-Helaire’s career total statistics in 17 games this upcoming season (because that’s exactly what he did last season). Edwards-Helaire was drafted first because of the “optionality” in his game, the fact that he could be used as a receiver in the spread offense that Chiefs coach Andy Reid likes to run with Mahomes. However, after not being used at all in that aspect at Wisconsin (42 total receptions in college), Taylor has done enough as a receiver out of the backfield to keep prolific pass catcher Nyheim Hines off of the field most of the time in Indianapolis. Again, this is not a knock on Clyde as a player. He is quite talented, and I expect him to be pretty good this year (I’ve got him ranked as my 19th RB in fantasy football). However, the Chiefs picked him before a clearly more talented (and as we now know, generational) player at the same position because of perceived “fit” with their star QB.
All of this being said, my Texans selected DT Ross Blacklock the pick directly before Taylor was taken, and Blacklock is in danger of getting cut this off-season. Oh yeah, and we didn’t draft a RB because we were paying $11 million to a washed up David Johnson. I digress. One last note- this isn’t even the most mind-boggling draft move the Chiefs have made in recent memory. In the 2019 NFL Draft, when the team thought they were losing Hill the first time (due to potential suspension/legal action for domestic violence allegations), they took unproven and semi-unheard-of-receiver Mecole Hardman to fill the exact archetype that Hill was leaving the team without. The only issue? No one can be Tyreek Hill. Instead of taking more known/higher upside receiver talents such as DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, or Terry McLaurin (all selected in the next 20 picks), they opted for a speedster whose best career contribution has been as a return man. The only reason the team doesn’t get much slack for this is because the Patriots and Eagles selected WRs N’Keal Harry and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, respectively, also before those other receivers.
2. Kyler Murray sending the Cardinals tape of Rondale Moore
This is the take I am most scared of getting off. Rondale Moore performed well when he got the opportunity in his rookie season, but he wasn’t used in the correct way and definitely didn’t see as many touches as he should’ve. The Athletic’s Nate Tice did a series of tweets last week about Rondale’s performance as a rookie, and found that he had negative yards before the catch (meaning his average catch was behind the line of scrimmage, a seemingly impossible feat). Moore’s usage is a perfect referendum on head coach Kliff Kingsbury (the same guy that has only lined DeAndre Hopkins up on one side of the field since he got to the Cardinals), who I believe the jury is still out on. Back to Moore’s productive rookie season, in which he had 59 catches on 70 targets for 467 yards and a touchdown (regular season and playoffs). Very good numbers, especially considering that there is typically a learning curve for receivers entering the NFL (although players such as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have broken this trend in a big way recently). And, as I mentioned before, his coach has made his life harder with how he is used. It’s insane for any receiver to be expected to pick up all of his yards after the catch, but it’s especially insane to have that expectation for a rookie (by the way, the player with the next lowest average yards before catch after Moore’s -.1 was Mecole Hardman all the way up at 3.2).
However, it’s a poor look to draft a 5’7” 180 lb receiver and then, almost exactly a year later, trade your first round draft pick for a 5’9” 180 lb wideout in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Brown and Moore should operate on the field at the same time (in fact, they’ll have to while DeAndre Hopkins serves his six-game suspension), but they fill a lot of the same roles. Now, who could the Cards have taken instead of Moore? This is tough, because the receivers taken after him haven’t proven to be much anything more than Rondale. The Chargers’ Joshua Palmer and the Texans’ Nico Collins (drafted about 30 and 40 spots after Moore, respectively) have shown potential, but they and Moore are probably on the same level of “promising but need to grow in year two.” In fact, the only WR of the 28 selected after Rondale to show more his rookie season was the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown, and it took a huge second half of the season for St. Brown for that to be the case. Also, “the Sun God” was drafted more than 60 picks after Moore, and a difference of two rounds of draft capital means that the Cardinals would’ve likely had to have “reached” to pick St. Brown in the spot that they took Moore.
Other positions of need at the time of the draft included tight end (remember, the team traded for Zach Ertz at the trade deadline last year, and the selection of Pat Friermuth—selected 6 picks after Rondale Moore— may have quelled the need for a trade), linebacker (though the team may have avoided picking a “tweener” such as Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah after their failure to develop/use recent high selections Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons), and offensive line. The last one is a big one, as the line struggled despite being one of the most expensive in the league. Though the Cardinals had traded for Rodney Hudson—long time Raiders stalwart in the middle of the line—pre draft, the selection of one of the two talented centers taken at the end of the second round (Packers’ Josh Myers or Chiefs’ Creed Humphrey- who had a strong case to be the offensive rookie of the year) would’ve helped the line tremendously. Linemen, especially young ones, are able to shift around positions a bit, so one of them would’ve fit snugly in at guard next to Hudson. Finally, even for a team such as the Baltimore Ravens (who may very well have one of the best secondaries of the century this coming season), talent at defensive back is always a need. The Cardinals are not the Baltimore Ravens. Andre Cisco, criminally underused by Urban Meyer last season but making news in Jaguars training camp, was drafted 15 picks later. Giants’ and Saints’ corners Aaron Robinson and Paulson Adebo and Commanders’ nickelback Benjamin St-Juste, all expected to start for their respective teams this year, were all drafted in the ten picks following Cisco. Again, the Cardinals—relying on Budda Baker and Byron Murphy Jr. to cover up a lot for other pieces in the secondary—are not the Baltimore Ravens.
All of this being said, teams make mistakes in the draft all of the time. Eight picks after the Cardinals took Rondale, Sean McVay convinced the Rams front office to select Tutu Atwell, a “gadget” guy who at 165 lbs would have to break a serious trend to even make a Pro Bowl. Note that I didn’t mention him in players the Cards could’ve selected instead; I considered writing a 3rd section detailing this piece but 700+ words on a second round punt returner didn’t seem justified. 31 teams famously passed on Lamar Jackson because teams were unsure about his arm, including the Ravens themselves (taking tight end Hayden Hurst earlier in the draft and then having to trade back up into the first round to take Jackson). Lamar then led the league in a lot of passing efficiency metrics (and ran for over 1,000 yards) on his way to winning MVP in 2019, his second NFL season. The draft isn’t an exact science. If it were, the NFL would be a lot less fun to watch- we’d know exactly who was going to be good in a given year. The sport would pretty much be as entertaining as a Madden simulated season. However, I’m stating a case that hopefully changes the way General Managers of teams approach the draft; instead of listening to your offensive mastermind and picking a player because of their “perfect fit” into their “perfect system,” pick the best player available. A lot of times (such as in the situations laid out above), that BPA plays the same position.
Not to drag my favorite team back into this, but I’m worried that in the most recent draft, the Texans committed this same grave error that I’ve detailed in this piece. Halfway through the second round, the team traded up to draft WR John Metchie, who seemingly fits like a glove as Davis Mills’ slot receiver considering that the quarterback likes to throw short and over the middle of the field. (Side note- Metchie is currently undergoing treatment for leukemia and will miss the 2022 season. I wish him and his family all the best in recovery.) Eight picks later, the Pittsburgh Steelers—noted experts at drafting the WR position—took George Pickens, who based on training camp hype has a bust currently being constructed in Canton, Ohio (home of the NFL Hall of Fame). Sure, Pickens fills a lot of the same role that second-year receiver Nico Collins (who I am high on) theoretically does. But one of the two of them, or Brandin Cooks—who plays at a high level all over the field—could’ve definitely shifted inside. And fine, maybe he doesn’t fit as neatly with Mills as Metchie does. But we don’t even know if Mills is the guy! I’ll get off my soapbox now. Hell, I could be wrong about every single player mentioned in this article. Really, I hope that the players I’ve doubted prove me wrong, especially Blacklock and Metchie for the sake of my sanity. All that I am positing is that GMs return to the tried and (mostly) true draft strategy of best player available.
Totally agree, love this piece and you.