Predicting the NBA 2022-23 Most Improved Player: Spurs' G/F Devin Vassell
A look into the state of San Antonio's roster as a whole, and how a leap from the third year player would fit into that
Current outlook of the Spurs’ roster
There is a lot of excitement among die hard Spurs fans surrounding the young talent on the team. Supporters of the Silver & Black won’t have much else to root for this season, as San Antonio is tied with the Houston Rockets for the lowest projected win total in the league. The youth movement is in full effect, and many are already eyeing next year’s highly touted draft class for our chance at a generational talent at the top of the lottery. In my opinion (as a diehard), however, there is still plenty to watch out for in the development of one of the league’s youngest rosters. Keldon Johnson officially broke out this past year after flirting with us for stretches dating back to his performance in The Bubble during his rookie season; he finally extended his game out past the perimeter, averaging almost 40% from 3 on 5.3 attempts per game. He still has plenty to work on. His numbers dipped a bit post All-Star Break when he was asked to handle more of the offense and as he upped his 3 point attempts by almost 2 a game; he also struggled with movement shooting. But we all know how good “Big Body” is in the paint, so attacking closeouts should come naturally. And after such a big improvement in his shot in 2021, it’s only fair to believe that progress will happen on shots off the dribble. The Spurs obviously believed that KJ warranted a new contract, and he will be the highest paid Spur starting in 2023 after having inked a 4 year, $74 million deal. With Dejounte Murray now in Atlanta, a lot—from leadership to ball possession—now falls on Keldon’s shoulders. We’ll need his steadying presence as the “veteran” in the room (entering his 4th season) while a lot of attention is pressed onto the truly green guys on the roster: the rookies—Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley—and Josh Primo (a faux-rookie after taking the title of youngest player in the NBA last season and spending a lot of time with the Austin Spurs of the G-League).
And there should be a lot of excitement surrounding those guys. Sochan, as the 9th pick this year, leads the field in terms of his projected addition. The Spurs are vastly in need of talent at the power forward position, and Jeremy should slot in immediately as one of the best wing defenders on the roster. The latest in a slew of Spurs from around the globe has already been comp-ed to Shawn Marion. Between the potential that comparison offers and all that Sochan already adds on offense (from high IQ vision to positional versatility to ability to crash the boards), the sky's the limit once he fixes the 3 ball that troubled him during his year at Baylor. Branham, the good guys’ 20th overall pick in the 2022 draft, immediately adds three-level scoring to a roster in dire need of shot-making. You have to watch the highlights of his breakout game versus Nebraska to truly understand how gifted this young man is at putting the round orange thing into the other round orange thing. He should be an impact player off the bench from day one. The last of the Spurs’ three first rounders this year and the 25th player taken, Mr. Blake Wesley, is definitely a work in progress. That being said, he led the Spurs Summer League squad in scoring and looks very comfortable with the ball in his hands. I project that he spends the most time in Austin of this group, but he may very well be this team’s next Dejounte as far as what he adds on defense from the lead guard position. Finally to Josh Primo, or “Baby Kobe” as I have affectionately tabbed him. It is hard to come away with a lot of positives from Primo’s rookie season stat sheet, but the eye test says a lot more. One message shared repeatedly by coaches, opponents, and teammates was that even for 18/19 years old, Josh was fearless on the court. That demeanor is very important for someone who is expected to take a big jump this season. Oh, and watch this stepback. Another extremely important skill considering what San Antonio will need of him offensively. After being limited to 25 games of 20 or more minutes (16 starts), I’m excited to see what he does with more opportunity this season.
So who are we forgetting about?
As I said, a lot to be excited about, even in a season where we should lose 55+ games. But, and this is a big but (haha), I do feel as though we as fans of the team in San Antonio may be overlooking a vital piece to the Spurs’ rebuild. I get it. Keldon is 6’5”, Primo 6’6”, Malaki and Wesley both 6’5”. Even Tre Jones, a candidate to start at point guard for the Spurs this season and just 22 years old (important to point out because he is often left out of the young core), is 6’1” (all per Basketball Reference). That is a long list of young guys under 6’6” filling out the 1-3 rotation, without even mentioning the guy that I’m writing this article about. But we have to mention him—that’s right, I’m talking about Devin Vassell. Pre-Jeremy Sochan, Vassell was the earliest Spurs first round pick since Tim Duncan (this year, Sochan beat him out by two draft slots). He was drafted onto a team that, though picking in the lottery, was trying to compete. And Devin, for a couple of reasons (his skill set immediately translated to the NBA, the G League didn’t have a season due to COVID), was held in San Antonio all year and thus wasn’t afforded enough minutes to grow. The Spurs had a roster composed of a weird mix of veterans (led by DeMar Derozan and old man LaMarcus Aldridge), really inexperienced young guys trying to find roles (hello, Luka Samanic and Lonnie Walker), and the 2020 version of the Spurs’ future—Murray and Derrick White. Yeah, the post-Kawhi trade teams were not pretty; I’m really glad that (head coach Gregg) Popovich and the Front Office (“PATFO”) have finally decided to do a full tear down, because contending for the 10 seed just to get bounced in the play-in tournament was starting to wear on me. Back to the premise: still just 21, Devin is the epitome of the modern NBA and this season he finally gets a chance to show it. He’s 6’7”, has the switchability on defense to play the opposing team’s point guard through small forward (and judging based on some recent workout photos, he’s put on some muscle and may be able to handle some small 4s). We saw in Mikal Bridges the value of a “3-and-D” wing (a term which emphasizes the importance of those two particular skills—3 point shooting and defense) during the Phoenix Suns’ run to the NBA Finals in 2021. Vassell fits right into that mold, and I think that he is primed for a huge 3rd season wearing the jersey we know and love. Listed below are a few of the top reasons why.
Elite screen recovery and shot-blocking
I said earlier that Jeremy Sochan has a chance to step in immediately as one of our best wing defenders. And, of course, big man Jakob Poetl mans the interior, a task he performed more than admirably last season with no one nearly as large or as good as Sochan next to him at power forward. More on him later. For at least this season, however, the Spurs’ locked-in best defender on the roster is Devin Vassell. I briefly wrote above about his switchability and his size, but he’s so much more than that. NBA University on Twitter put together a compilation of Devin recovering after being screened off of his man, something that he has a natural feel for (side note- watch until the end of the video for a couple of clips showing what Vassell can add on offense, and hold onto that thought). Screen recovery is a talent that shouldn’t be taken for granted in today’s pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop heavy NBA. Later in the Twitter thread the account posited that they wished that Vassell was better at navigating screens, so that he wouldn’t be forced to be perfect on the recovery. Considering that he’s gained some weight this off-season and is currently undergoing his second real offseason with the team (after COVID affected training before his rookie year), I have to think that is something he and the Spurs are working on. Also shown in NBA University’s thread and even more clearly in this rejection of Rudy Gobert is the fact that Devin is one of the league’s best shot blockers. He uses his length (Vassell has a 6’10”+ wingspan) and athleticism to get up and affect almost any attempt. His screen recovery and shot blocking skills combined with the fact that he never gives up on the play makes it so that opposing players are never completely safe to put something up. The final defensive ability of Devin’s that I wanted to highlight but that isn’t included in the title of this section is his compulsion to poke the ball loose. Dejounte Murray led the league in steals and steals per game in 2021-22, and as I mentioned, he now plays for the Hawks. With DJ gone, San Antonio will need someone to step in as designated fast break creator, a player who energizes both the defense and the offense. Looking at Devin Vassell’s “on ball” numbers from last season (including 2.5 deflections per 36 minutes, a stat that tells of a menacing defender) and projecting more reps where he takes on the opposing team’s primary ball handler, it’s not hard to see him step into that role.
Shot-making and underrated passing vision
Using “3-and-D” tends to limit the national view of those players to which the title applies. They’re seen as just that— threats from the three point line, guys who’re going to be annoying when guarding your team’s best player, and nothing more. And it’s a catchy phrase! Oh, it’s very catchy, and happens to describe (outside of quarterback) perhaps the most important position in the current landscape of professional sports. So it’s used all the time. However, Devin—like a lot of other “3-and-D” wings—has much more in “his bag.” And yes, he is a great defender (as detailed above) and is already a pretty lights out shooter from beyond the arc. Attached below is my first ever image in an article— courtesy of StatMuse, Vassell’s shot chart from 2021-22. The only place that he shows a bit of weakness is the left corner (the only spot along the 3-point line with light blue coloring), and I’d argue that he falls victim to small sample size, having shot 10/59 on attempts from that spot. In a do-or-die play-in game against the New Orleans Pelicans, Devin made a career high 7 threes. Like I keep saying though, Vassell offers a lot more when he hits the court. As I’m sure you can figure from the header to this section, I believe he’s got the tools to be a shot maker and self-creator from every spot on the court, and I also am of the opinion that he’s got underrated passing skills. As far as shooting goes, Devin can use that wingspan mentioned earlier to put up tough looks over defenders. Looking back to that NBA University video, Vassell first shows the confidence to step up and pop as soon as he’s given a window, and then we see that he’s got a bit of a turnaround jumper in his game. Oh yeah, and he can do this. (I’ll admit, watching that game live, I stood up off my coach and screamed as he slammed all over Miami’s Duncan Robinson). Devin should be able to take those same bunnies that he uses to block shots and create more than one highlight-worthy dunk this year. Finally, to his passing chops. Though Vassell does not profile much as a ball handler outside of creating looks for himself (he averaged 2 assists per game last season), he’s showcased great timing on lob passes dating back to his year at Florida State. With underrated lob catcher Jakob Poeltl (I told you I’d get back to him) and a range of athletic dunkers (see: Josh Primo, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan) on his team, as well as more time with the ball, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Vassell increase his APG by 1 or 2 assists.
What a MIP campaign would entail
Let me cut straight to the chase— there is almost a zero percent chance that Vassell actually wins the award. San Antonio is a small market by NBA standards (even though it’s one of the top 10 largest cities in the U.S.), and this puts our players at a disadvantage come All-Star selection time and awards season. The last time that a Spur won this award was 1986 (Alvin Robertson), which happens to be the first year that the award was given. Also, in one of the first sentences of the piece I wrote about how likely it is that the Spurs lose a lot of games this year. Of the last 10 most improved players, only Brandon Ingram (2019-20, 30 wins) finished below .500 in record, and only one other player (Goran Dragic in 2013-14, 48 wins) saw his team miss the playoffs. Like the rookie of the year award, MIP is tough to predict year-to-year because the criteria changes depending on who’s in the race. Bleacher Report put it pretty well back in this 2017 article: “Some years, it's handed to a player who maintained his level of play (or even regressed slightly) while filling a much bigger role. Other times, the league rewards a contributor who made noticeable strides on both ends of the floor and did legitimately improve on a per-minute basis. Stars can win for reaching a new level, though the award often goes to a low- or mid-level rotation member who made the jump to legitimacy.” F#$&ing Ja Morant won last year, and some would argue that he was already a top 15ish player going into the season (sorry to get heated, I had a vested interest in a player who I believe actually took a big step forward). As you can see, the standard for winning the award truly does depend on the year. All of that said, I believe that Devin Vassell’s stats will put him in the conversation, and that’s all that really matters. This is a great piece outlining what profile, in a typical season, an MIP finalist needs to have. The four main requirements listed, as well as how they apply in Vassell’s case, are as follows:
“Go from a spark-plug off the bench to a full-time starter (sort-of)”— Devin started 7 games at the tail end of his rookie season and 32 last year. Except in case of injury or rest, I’d expect him to get the start in pretty much every game next season (which would be an increase in starts by 40+ games).
“Be in your third or fourth season in the league”— Check.
“Put up around 20 points per game”— This is the toughest requirement, only because it would require an increase of almost 8 PPG by Vassell. However, behind Keldon Johnson (a more mainstream prediction to enter the MIP race off of the Spurs), I’d say Devin is the favorite to lead the team in scoring. Also, in April (6 games, including the play-in) Vassell averaged 17.7 PPG. That’s a small sample size, so I’ll increase the game count to get his average post-All Star (21 games): 14.6. That makes a leap to 20 PPG seem a lot less daunting.
“Play for the Indiana Pacers or Orlando Magic”— Mostly a joke because the teams are tied for the league-lead with five winners in their history, this one actually might work in our favor for the first time ever. The Spurs dynasty is officially over, and this year we’ve joined the group of teams vying for the number one overall pick, joining (you guessed it) the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic.
As I said, not going to happen. But as long as Devin shows enough growth to get him in or near the conversation, the team and its fans should be ecstatic. I’m already confident in Devin Vassell (not sure that I need to make that clear 2700+ words into this thing), but a leap like that would mean the Spurs have a bona fide starter on the team when they’re ready to contend again.